THE OBLIGATED
Market Intelligence Hidden in Government Data
Welcome to Issue #5 of The Obligated. Every week I monitor War.gov, congressional stock disclosures, and SEC insider filings to find the 3 signals hiding in plain sight. The government publishes billions of dollars of market-moving information every day. Almost nobody reads it.
🟢 SIGNAL #1 — FREE THIS WEEK
$UAMY
United States Antimony Corporation · NYSE · ~$1.0B Market Cap
WHAT HAPPENED
On June 26, 2026, the Defense Logistics Agency posted delivery order SP8000-26-F-0030 to War.gov: a $29,978,736 sole-source contract for antimony metal ingots, awarded to United States Antimony Corporation of Thompson Falls, Montana. The order was issued under a five-year contract ceiling (SP8000-25-D-0007) and runs through September 21, 2030. The justification cited 10 U.S. Code 3204(a)(3)(A) — meaning there is only one source in the country qualified to fill it. As of publication, no major financial outlet has covered this specific delivery order.
WHY IT MATTERS
Antimony is essential for manufacturing armor-piercing ammunition, drones, laser-guided missiles, and night-vision devices. China banned antimony exports in September 2024, severing what had been the dominant global supply source. UAMY is the only company currently refining antimony in the United States, making it the sole domestic supplier to all five branches of the armed forces. This single $30M delivery order represents roughly 3% of the company's entire market capitalization — and approximately 4x its Q1 2026 quarterly revenue of $6.8M. Management guided for $125M in total 2026 revenue, with $75M–$95M expected to come from federal antimony shipments. The latest order is the largest individual delivery notice placed under this contract to date.
There is an additional layer here: 11 days before this delivery order appeared on War.gov, Director Jon Marinelli — a finance professional with 15+ years of investment banking experience — purchased 12,500 shares of UAMY in an open-market transaction at $7.45 per share ($93,125 total), disclosed via SEC Form 4 filing on June 15, 2026. Directors rarely make open-market purchases for optics. Investment bankers rarely make them without a thesis.
WHAT TO WATCH
Watch for monthly delivery orders under UAMY's $245M DLA contract ceiling — the company has said it expects recurring monthly orders as production capacity ramps at its expanded Thompson Falls smelter. Also monitor the company's Q2 2026 earnings call (expected late July/August) for revenue acceleration driven by federal shipments, and watch War.gov for any additional DoW grant awards from UAMY's $274M in pending government applications.
🟡 SIGNAL #2 — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
$LHX
L3Harris Technologies · NYSE · ~$40B Market Cap
WHAT HAPPENED
On June 26, the Navy awarded L3Harris a $44,166,206 contract for 40 MK 20 Mod 1 Electro-Optical Sensor Systems and spares, combining US Navy procurement with Foreign Military Sales to Australia, Japan, and Canada — three allies simultaneously reordering the same system. A member of the House Armed Services Committee quietly filed a stock disclosure showing a purchase of LHX shares on May 30, just weeks before...
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🔴 SIGNAL #3 — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
$RTX
RTX Corporation (Raytheon) · NYSE · ~$150B Market Cap
WHAT HAPPENED
In a 48-hour span ending June 26, the US government awarded Raytheon over $1.5 billion across two separate missile contracts — $1,108,009,001 for AIM-9X Sidewinder production (June 25) and $398,691,358 for Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (June 24). The Foreign Military Sales component of the AIM-9X contract alone totals $744 million, representing demand from 31+ allied nations. A sitting member of the Senate Appropriations Committee — who chairs the subcommittee that controls military construction funding — purchased RTX shares on May 30, shortly before...
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📋 WEEKLY RECOMPETE WATCHLIST — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
5 contracts expiring in the next 90 days. These companies are about to win or lose revenue — before any press release.
🔒 $HII — CVN-74 Stennis Refueling Complex Overhaul supplemental work — October 2026
🔒 $VVX — Base Operations Support Services, undisclosed installation — August 2026
🔒 $LMT — F-35 3DEL Expeditionary Long-Range Radar interim contractor support — September 2026
🔒 $GE — Improved Turbine Engine (ITE) EMD Phase II option exercise window — July 2026
🔒 $UAMY — DLA antimony ingot contract next delivery notice — sole-source ceiling utilization — July 2026
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⚠️ Disclaimer
The Obligated is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes personalized financial, legal, or tax advice. All data is sourced from publicly available government records including War.gov, SEC EDGAR, Capitol Trades STOCK Act disclosures, and the Defense Logistics Agency. We do not recommend buying or selling any security. All investment strategies involve risk of loss. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Consult a licensed financial professional before acting on any information provided.
The Obligated · theobligated.com · Issue #5 · June 29, 2026