Welcome to Issue #11 of The Obligated. Every week I monitor USASpending.gov, congressional stock disclosures, and SEC insider filings to find the 3 signals hiding in plain sight. The government publishes billions of dollars of market-moving information every day. Almost nobody reads it.
🟢 SIGNAL #1 — FREE THIS WEEK
$RTX
RTX Corporation (Raytheon / Collins Aerospace) · NYSE · Market cap ≈ $293 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
Between Aug. 3 and Aug. 7, 2026, the Department of War posted four separate contract awards to Raytheon and its Collins Aerospace unit — both part of RTX Corp — worth a combined $1.63 billion. The largest, posted Aug. 7, is a $745.4 million missile-defense award covering new Standard Missile-3 Block IIA interceptors for the U.S. Navy and Japan's Ministry of Defense. The same day brought a $536 million modification funding more TOW anti-tank missile production, on top of a $271.5 million Navy award (posted Aug. 3, dated July 29) for AEGIS radar fire-control hardware and an $82 million Navy deal for aircraft radio logistics. Trade press picked up the SM-3 award within hours of the War.gov posting; the full week's combined total had not yet been reported in mainstream financial media as of this writing.
WHY IT MATTERS
$1.63 billion landing in a single five-day stretch works out to roughly 1.85% of RTX's full 2025 revenue of $88.6 billion — a large concentration of new obligated funding for one week. The SM-3 award alone extends missile-interceptor production through February 2031 and folds in a Japan Ministry of Defense Foreign Military Sales case, tying the contract to the broader U.S.-Japan missile-defense build-out. The TOW modification lifts that single program's cumulative contract value to $750.8 million, adding directly to RTX's backlog.
WHAT TO WATCH
Watch RTX's Q3 2026 earnings call (expected mid-October) for management commentary on missile-defense backlog and Japan FMS volume, and watch War.gov for follow-on AEGIS or SM-3 awards as the Missile Defense Agency continues issuing undefinitized contract actions to speed production.
🟡 SIGNAL #2 — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
$ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. · NYSE · Market cap ≈ $9.9 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
On Aug. 5, 2026, the Army awarded Allison Transmission a $67.5 million firm-fixed-price contract for Abrams Main Battle Tank transmissions and technical support, bringing the program's cumulative contract value to $345.2 million. The Army solicited bids over the internet and received exactly one — a detail that points to...
[ Upgrade to read — $19/mo or $149/yr at theobligated.com ]
🔴 SIGNAL #3 — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
$TDY
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (FLIR Unmanned Ground Systems) · NYSE · Market cap ≈ $29.0 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
On Aug. 6, 2026, the Army awarded Teledyne's FLIR unmanned ground systems unit a $44.5 million contract to sustain its Man Transportable Robotic System fleet, with an ordering period running through August 2031. What makes this contract structure notable is...
[ Upgrade to read — $19/mo or $149/yr at theobligated.com ]
📋 WEEKLY RECOMPETE WATCHLIST — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Contracts nearing their end dates. These companies are about to see revenue lapse, renew, or convert to a new award — before any press release.
🔒 $GE — DLA J85 trainer-engine sustainment lot order (Air Force/Navy, TrueChoice Defense digital sustainment program) — Aug. 2026
🔒 $ALSN — Current Abrams tank transmission production tranche (W912CH-26-F-0040) — Aug. 2026
Editorial note to Bola: only these two near-term period-of-performance end dates could be verified this cycle directly against primary War.gov contract text. The remaining three watchlist slots were left out rather than filled with unverified dates — recommend a dedicated USASpending.gov pull sorted by period-of-performance end date for future issues to reliably populate all five.
[ Upgrade to unlock — $19/mo or $149/yr ]
⚠️ Disclaimer
The Obligated is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes personalized financial, legal, or tax advice. All data is sourced from publicly available government records including USASpending.gov, War.gov, SEC EDGAR, Capitol Trades STOCK Act disclosures, and the Senate Lobbying Disclosure database. We do not recommend buying or selling any security. All investment strategies involve risk of loss. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Consult a licensed financial professional before acting on any information provided.
The Obligated · theobligated.com · Issue #11 · August 10, 2026