Welcome to Issue #18 of The Obligated. Every week I monitor USASpending.gov, War.gov, congressional stock disclosures, and SEC insider filings to find the 3 signals hiding in plain sight. The government publishes billions of dollars of market-moving information every day. Almost nobody reads it.
● SIGNAL #1 — FREE THIS WEEK
$LHX
L3Harris Technologies, Inc. · NYSE · Market cap ≈ $44.6 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
On September 23, 2026, the Navy's Naval Air Systems Command posted a $876,440,942 modification to L3Harris's Next Generation Jammer Low Band contract to War.gov — more than doubling the deal's original $587.4 million ceiling in a single action. As of this writing, the award has only been picked up by defense trade outlets (GovConWire, Seapower Magazine, Washington Technology, Military Aerospace); no mainstream financial outlet had published stock-focused coverage yet.
WHY IT MATTERS
That single contract action is worth roughly 2% of L3Harris's entire market capitalization — a large add for a company this size in one modification. The money funds continued development, tooling, and test-article production for the EA-18G Growler's next-generation jamming pod, with work running through fiscal 2031, and it adds scope for the Royal Australian Air Force alongside the U.S. Navy — pointing to a growing, multi-country backlog rather than a one-off.
WHAT TO WATCH
Watch L3Harris's Q3 2026 earnings call (expected late October) for backlog or guidance commentary tied to the jammer program, and watch War.gov for a follow-on action that "definitizes" this modification — that's when the ceiling dollars typically convert into locked-in, reportable revenue.
● SIGNAL #2 — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
$NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation · NYSE · Market cap ≈ $74.8 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
On back-to-back days last week, Northrop Grumman picked up two separate Department of War contract actions worth a combined $235 million — one tied to F-35 radar hardware, the other to the nation's next nuclear deterrent program. Neither made a splash on its own. Read together against what's due on Northrop's calendar in the next two quarters, and…
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● SIGNAL #3 — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
$GE
GE Aerospace · NYSE · Market cap ≈ $331 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
GE Aerospace picked up a $199.7 million, three-year contract on September 24 to keep F-130J aircraft propellers supplied and running — routine sustainment work on paper. But look at who else is named on the same award, thousands of miles from the U.S., and what that implies about the program's next phase…
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■ WEEKLY RECOMPETE WATCHLIST — PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
5 contracts expiring in the next 90 days. These companies are about to win or lose revenue — before any press release.
A transparent note on this issue: reliably matching specific expiring contracts to public tickers within a 90-day window requires a direct, filtered pull from USASpending.gov's award database (period-of-performance end date, by contractor) rather than the war.gov daily contract notices used for Signals #1–3. That pull isn't reliable through this issue's research pipeline yet, so rather than publish tickers and dates we can't stand behind, we're holding this section until it's built properly. Paid subscribers will see it as soon as it's verified — and won't be charged for a placeholder in the meantime.
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! Disclaimer
The Obligated is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes personalized financial, legal, or tax advice. All data is sourced from publicly available government records including USASpending.gov, War.gov, SEC EDGAR, Capitol Trades STOCK Act disclosures, and the Senate Lobbying Disclosure database. We do not recommend buying or selling any security. All investment strategies involve risk of loss. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Consult a licensed financial professional before acting on any information provided.
The Obligated · theobligated.com · Issue #18 · September 28, 2026